Canola futures fell by double-digits on Thursday, following the release of Statistics Canada model-based production estimates.
StatsCan pegged the 2025 national canola crop at 19.937 million tonnes, up 3.6% from the previous year and potentially the largest crop since 2018 when farmers harvested 20.723 million. Although the estimate fell below the average pre-report trade guess of 20.3 million, today’s report was based on conditions up until the end of July, when Prairie conditions were drier.
Much improved rainfall across many parts of Western Canada in August is expected to result in an even higher production estimate when StatsCan releases its next set of production estimates Sept. 17.
Canola was further pressured by declines in Chicago soybean oil and losses in European rapeseed and palm oil. The Canadian dollar was higher as well, adding even more pressure to canola.
November canola was down $15 at $635.70, and January lost $14.90 to $648.20.
